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Author: Mike Kaye
Published: 10:27 AM EST February 27, 2017
Updated: 10:27 AM EST February 27, 2017

First Coast News will take a look at each position group on the Jaguars' roster on a daily basis over the next few weeks. Today's focus will be on the cornerback position.

- Quarterback

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- Wide Receiver

Wide Receiver

- Tight End

Tight End

- Offensive Line

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Defensive End

- Defensive Tackle

Defensive Tackle
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- Linebacker

Linebacker

The Jaguars currently have Jalen Ramsey , Davon House , Aaron Colvin , Josh Johnson and Doran Grant signed to the roster at cornerback.

Jalen Ramsey Davon House Aaron Colvin Josh Johnson Doran Grant

Ramsey finished second in the voting for the NFL Defensive Rookie of Year award after breaking up 14 passes and intercepting two more in his first year. He is a No. 1 cornerback and may still have the most upside of any player on the roster.

Colvin is a dependable cornerback in the slot and an underrated zone corner on the outside. He will return and hope to earn a big free agent deal as he enters a contract year.

In terms of historical tropical cyclone activity, recent work ( Kossin et al. 2014 ; see GFDL Research Highlight ; Kossin et al. 2016 ) indicates that the latitude at which the maximum intensity of tropical cyclones occurs has expanded poleward globally in recent decades. The poleward shift in the Northwest Pacific they conclude is unusual compared to expected variability from natural causes but consistent with general expectations of such a shift due to anthropogenic warming seen in climate model experiments. The poleward shift has been found in both hemispheres, but is not seen in the Atlantic basin. Human activities may have already caused other changes in tropical cyclone activity that are not yet detectable due to the small magnitude of these changes compared to estimated natural variability, or due to observational limitations.

For future projections, GFDL atmospheric modelers have developed global models capable of simulating many aspects of the seasonal and year-to-year variability of tropical cyclone frequency in a number of basins, using only historical sea surface temperatures as input. Examples of the performance of these models on historical data are provided on this web page .

Our 2015 study examines the impact of 21st-century projected climate changes (CMIP5, RCP4.5 scenario) on a number of tropical cyclone metrics, using the GFDL hurricane model to downscale storms in all basins from one of the lower resolution global atmospheric models mentioned above. Key findings from these experiments include: fewer tropical cyclones globally in a warmer late-twenty-first-century climate (Figure 8), but also an increase in average cyclone intensity, the number and occurrence days of very intense category 4 and 5 storms in most basins (Figure 9) and in tropical cyclone precipitation rates (Figure 10).

Based on our published results and as well as those of other modeling groups, we conclude that at the global scale: a future increase in tropical cyclone precipitation rates is likely; an increase in tropical cyclone intensity is likely; an increase in very intense (category 4 and 5) tropical cyclones is more likely than not; and there is medium confidence in a decrease in the frequency of weaker tropical cyclones. Existing studies suggest a tropical cyclone windspeed increase of about 1-10% and a tropical cyclone precipitation rate increase of about 10-15% for a moderate (2 degree Celsius) global warming scenario. These global projections are similar to the consensus findings from a review of earlier studies in the 2010 WMO assessment . [There is already medium confidence for a detectable human contribution to past observed increases in heavy precipitation in general over global land regions and for the United States , although this increase has not been formally detected for hurricane precipitation alone.]

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